Dirac
Lv 4
Dirac asked in EnvironmentGlobal Warming · 2 months ago

Why does the denier troll claim that JMA data shows typhoons decreasing?

The denier troll Clown Crusher has a question where he claims that Japan Meteorological Agency data shows a downward trend in typhoons, but he shows a trend line that can't be supported with the data given by JMA.  You can take JMA's data and calculate the standard deviation of the data and you'll get 4.7 typhoons per year, which is GREATER than his purported decrease due to the "trend" over the 70 year time period. In other words, from that data there is no evidence of a statistically significant trend either down or up. Does he know this and is trying to trick people? Is that why he blocks scientifically literate people from answering?

Update:

Ah, Climate Crusher--is that your idea of debate, making some meme showing your opponent with a long nose? Yes, you're not going to find many people that want to "debate" you by making juvenile memes.

Update 2:

Clown Crusher, I agree completely with your statement "I'll believe the JMA and science over a troll."  That is exactly why I posted the question--to show what the science based on JMA's data says, and to dispute what you--the troll--claims. Let me repeat it because you seem to have missed it the first time. You claim a "trend" that is completely baseless.  The variation in data from year-to-year is so much larger than the fake decreasing "trend" you claim as to render your claim...

Update 3:

...to be with statistical significance whatsoever.  Typically in science we use a minimum significance level of 95 percent, although 99 percent or higher is better.  Your claim is probably significant at about the 5 percent level--in other words, completely indefensible--and in fact you were incapable of defending it, which is why you block.

Update 4:

Should be "without statistical significance".

7 Answers

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  • 2 months ago
    Favourite answer

    The funniest part is where he asks why 2020 is so low.

    Without realizing the data for 2020 are "preliminary" - as his own link says.  Once you translate it into English (which he apparently never bothered to do.)

    --------

    @Sam - The average yearly number in the troll's paper is 26.25

    Five of the last seven years exceeded that.  With the last two being 29 each.

    While five of the first seven years were below that average.

    I don't know what language you think makes that average "down," but it isn't English.  Or the Japanese the article was written in.

    -------

    @Wyoming - The problem is that the "sloping right to left line" isn't in his source.  It comes from nowhere but his imagination.  THAT'S THE POINT.

  • 1 month ago

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  • 2 months ago

    You might want to ask them that question.

  • 2 months ago

    A sloping left to right line represents a decrease.

    Where in the alarmist world is a sloping left to right line increasing?

  • What do you think of the answers? You can sign in to give your opinion on the answer.
  • Sam
    Lv 5
    2 months ago

    Average number is down.

  • Anonymous
    2 months ago

    The JMA is corrupt like NOAA so I’m shocked by this data.

  • Koshka
    Lv 5
    2 months ago

    Poor little Clown Crusher troll, he crushes himself without even knowing how anyone that is sane can see what a fool he is. He could study basic science instead of wasting his time creating more trolls and silly pictures trying to put real scientists down. He is so afraid of debating you Dirac, that all he can do is make these pathetic lies. 

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