Anonymous asked in Politics & GovernmentPolitics · 1 month ago

Are all the signs pointing to a complete TRUMP Blowout in 2020?

Trump will win 400+ electoral vote victory

6 Answers

  • Anonymous
    1 month ago

    No.  All signs point to a Trump loss, perhaps a very bad one. 

    As for his electoral total, if he does win it will be a very similar total to what he had last time.  There's a non-crazy scenario where Joe Biden breaks 400 electoral votes.   But there's no realistic scenario where Trump does.  I mean, look at the 2016 map and point out the Clinton won states that you think Trump could win.  From my perspective they're few and far between.  He could win New Hampshire if the year ends up being good for him.  Clinton won it in 2016 by only a half a point IIRC.  And maybe he could win Maine.  It's a more conservative leaning state for the Northeast and he won a single electoral vote there (Maine and Nebraska award their electoral votes based on the winner of congressional districts).  Other than that, Trump isnt going to win anything in the Northeast.  He's not going to win Virginia, Maryland or Delaware.  He's not going to win Illinois.  Other than Alaska he's not going to win anything on the Pacific.  He's not going to win New Mexico or Colorado.  So that really leaves Nevada and Minnesota (both of which Clinton won by only two or three points IIRC).  But in all of those states the signs seem to be showing Trump behind, often way behind.  If he's going to win he has to really turn his fortunes around.  And that's about all he can win.  If he goes win all those states I mentioned then he'll have a 323 electoral vote total. 

    (If you're interested, here's the non crazy way that Biden breaks 400.  It would require him having a very good night, but it's doable:  First off, Biden wins back the four Great Lakes states that Trump flipped: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio.  Trump won the first three by incredibly small margins in 2016 and Biden is ahead in all three.  Ohio tends to be a belweather which goes with the national mood.  Then Biden wins North Carolina, Georgia and Florida.  Trump won North Carolina and Georgia by two points or less in 2016 and Biden is currently ahead in both.  Georgia is also trending towards Democrats, although I haven't seen recent polling.  Then Biden wins Iowa.  Despite the general conservative lean of the state, it traditionally votes Democratic in Presidential elections, and in 2018 Iowans voted for Democrats in three of their four Congressional districts.  Then, Biden wins Arizona.  Again this is a state that Trump won relatively narrowly and where, I believe, Biden currently leads.  Finally, Biden wins Texas.  Now that might have seemed like a crazy idea a little while ago, but not so much now.  In 2018, Beto O'Rourke came within 1.5 points of beating Republican Ted Cruz in Texas.  And, more to the point, Biden is running essentially tied with Trump in Texas.  Some polls show him a point ahead, some a few points behind.  That's 412 points.  And it's not crazy.  Every state on that list is one where Biden is either ahead of Trump right now or just a few points behind him)

  • 1 month ago


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  • 1 month ago

    I think the word you are looking for is "blow-up"  At this point it is looking like he will be lucky to get to 150.

  • 1 month ago

    Of course. Support for Trump is already going up while Biden has lost a few points. Trump is now surpassing Biden nationwide in the polls, but CNN loves only mentioning snippets of the total score.

    Wait until the debates when Biden will be slurring and mumbling.

    Nobody will vote a serial child sniffer like Biden

    And even if Biden somehow gains a 10 point advantage over trump, the electoral college will obviously correct that.

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  • 1 month ago

    More than last time? lol And what has he done to earn an equal amount, let alone that much more? Good luck with that.

  • 1 month ago

    Uh.... no.  In fact the signs are saying the exact opposite.

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