What is the probability that Carl wins his motion to dismiss, but loses at trial?

Carl was injured in a lawnmower accident, and he wants to file a lawsuit. His lawyer has informed him that based on other, similar cases, Carl can expect that the case will proceed as follows:

(1) There is a 10%, or .10 chance that his case will be dismissed before trial, and he will receive nothing.

(2) If his case proceeds to trial, there is a 50% (.50) chance he will win, and a 50% chance he will lose. If he loses, he will receive nothing.

(3) If Carl's case gets to trial and he wins, the jury will either award high damages with a probability of 60% (.60), or low damages with probability of 40% (.40). If the jury awards high damages, Carl will receive $250,000. If the jury awards low damages, Carl will receive $90,000.

choose one:

Less than 0.2

Greater than or equal to 0.2, but less than 0.3.

Greater than or equal to 0.3, but less than 0.4

Greater than or equal to 0.4, but less than 0.5

Greater than or equal to 0.5

2 Answers

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  • 8 months ago
    Favourite answer

    90% x 50% or greater than or equal to .4, but less than .5

  • 8 months ago

    If Carl wins his motion to dismiss, then his chances of winning at trial is 0%.

    If the motion to dismiss is granted, then there is no trial.

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