Anonymous asked in Politics & GovernmentElections · 8 months ago

Will Trump win Wisconsin again?

I don't think so but it will be close.

3 Answers

  • Anonymous
    8 months ago
    Favourite answer

    My guess is not.  What people have to understand is that Trump wasn't popular in Wisconsin.  There's this idea which is prominent, both among Trump supporters and among non partisan observers, and even some Democrats, that Trump won states like Wisconsin because he was popular and offered an alternative vision which spoke to economically stagnant white communities.  But this isn't really true.  What people have to realize is that Trump got fewer votes, in total, than Mitt Romney got when he lost Wisconsin in 2012.  Trump didn't win Wisconsin because he was popular.  He won because Hillary Clinton was even less popular.  If the non Trump vote had solidifed behind Clinton in 2016 then she would have gotten 52% of the vote, about what Obama got, and would have won. 

    So even if we disregard any potential shift in support for Trump he could still easily lose.  Trump got around 47% of the vote in Wisconsin in 2016.  That leaves 52% of the vote which is up for grabs.  For him to win he's really got to have a Democrat who will not do better than Hillary Clinton did.  She got just 0.8% less of the vote than Trump.  Does anyone really think that it's going to be impossible for the 2020 Democrat to get 1% more than Clinton did?  Remember that Clinton was the least popular Democrat ever nominated up to that point and she suffered from a major October Surprise right before the election. In 2020 a Democrat is likely wo win Wisconsin.

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  • Jeff D
    Lv 7
    8 months ago

    I think it's ridiculous to be calling swing states a year before the election.  I think we can file this under 'wishful thinking'.

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  • 8 months ago

    Oh, good. We can save a lot of money by cancelling the election.

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