Will the Senate be deadlocked 50-50 after the 2020 elections, causing the vice president to have to use a tie-breaking vote?

Question

Tmess2 · Accepted Answer

It's possible.

The 2014 cycle was very favorable for Republicans so they have a lot of potentially vulnerable seats in swing and blue states to defend -- Maine, Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, and Iowa.  There are also some other states that could be vulnerable depending on who is running -- Georgia, Kentucky, Montana, and Kansas.  While the Democrats might be vulnerable in some other states,   In short, it is easy to see a split in close races that lead to a three-seat swing in favor of the Democrats.

However, a lot depends on who ends up running in these states. Filing has not yet closed in many states (only Alabama and Arkansas); so it is still possible for new candidates to enter those races or for people who everybody thought was going to run to decide not to run.  And in some of these states (e.g. Alabama for the Republicans), there are multiple candidates running who could plausibly win the nomination.  Who gets the nomination will impact the chances of the Senate seat changing hands.

And control always come down to a lost of close races.  Assuming that we end up with 10 competitive races (and it could be as few as 8 or as many as 12) that are currently split seven Republicans to three Democrats, it's probably more likely that we end up with a 51 Republican to 49 Democrat Senate.  But, given that sometimes close elections all swing in the same direction at the last minute due to national developments, you can make plausible arguments for anything from a 52 Democrat (and Democrat-leaning independents) and 48 Republican Senate to Republicans gaining a seat or two.

Clive · Answer

What does this have to do with elections?

Anonymous · Answer

Possibly. I'm sure that Vice President Buttigieg will vote the correct way, though.

Captain Matticus, LandPiratesInc · Answer

Mike Pence has already had to cast the tie-breaking vote 13 times, which puts him 7th on the list.  The last time we had such a divided Senate was when Grant was President.  Constitutionally speaking, Pence has been much harder at work than most of his predecessors.

Will the Senate be deadlocked 50-50 after the 2020 elections, causing the vice president to have to use a tie-breaking vote?

4 Answers