asked in Science & MathematicsWeather · 3 months ago

How can weather forecasters predict that we will get another "heat wave" 1 week in advance?

Update:

I was trying to determine if I should continue to water the newly planted fescue grass seed in my front lawn, and saw the weather forecasters predicted "more normal" temperatures for the next 5 days, but that by next weekend we will have , again, near 100 degree temps. how can they predict that far in advance?

3 Answers

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  • TQ
    Lv 7
    3 months ago

    Output from advanced numerical weather prediction models is how weather forecasters can usually predict a "heat wave" 1 week in advance.

    The precise day a heatwave starts and the day it ends may be off a day or two but weather forecasters are able to predict their occurrence about a week in advance.

    ---

    If the soil looks as if it's drying out ... then water.

  • Anonymous
    3 months ago

    That depends where you are. I doubt forecasters are saying the world everywhere is having a heat wave in the next week.

  • oikoσ
    Lv 7
    3 months ago

    Theoretically simple but the devil is in the details. You start with weather maps from the past few days and track the movement (speed and direction) of the highs, lows, fronts, etc. Then you assume that these trends will continue for the next seven days. You have to account for the effects of the mountains, bodies of water, and such. I can do it fairly accurately for a few days but don't have the software to do it any further ahead than that.

    BTW, that sounds like what I have been hearing in the TV forecasts here in Southside VA, although I guess that the systems involved cover a great deal more area than that.

    • oikoσ
      Lv 7
      3 months agoReport

      TQ, even when the method I describe was the best we had, predictions were about 70% accurate. Obviously, you made adjustments for your location. Even so, temperature, rainfall, and wind were close enough as to make no never-mind. When the forecast says rain, I don't plan on digging up my garden

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