How long will it take to reach the catastrophic 2°C of warming the IPCC is so worried about?
- ElizabethLv 76 months agoFavorite Answer
I think there are two different aspects to that question ...
The first part is how long will it take before warming hits 2 degrees. At the moment, the planet is about 1 C warmer, and the current rate of warming is about 0.15 C per decade. So if the current rate of warming persists we would hit 2 degrees around the mid 2080s. The upper bound on the warming rate is about 0.2 C per decade, in which case we would hit 2 degrees around 2070.
The second part is how long will it take before we have emitted enough CO2 to guarantee that 2 degree rise in the future. Some have claimed 12 years, others around 20. So if things continue as they are until 2030 to 2040, a 2 degree rise is basically inevitable.
- antarcticiceLv 76 months ago
As far as I’m aware nobody is saying a rise of 2c will be catastrophic, 2c is what the IPCC are trying to get action on from global governments. If temp rise can be limited to 2c then we avoid the worst parts of AGW. Sadly with little real action being taken temp rises of more like 3-5c look set to be the future. I would imagine if that happens history will have some rather harsh things to say about deniers.
Deniers will blather on about diminishing returns on Co2 or that it’s taken 200 years to get to where we are now, this of course ignores the facts that Co2 is rising exponentially, even deners must be able to grasp that what we put out now in a year was what we put out in a decade a century ago before cars even really existed, what we put out now is measured in billions of tons per year now dwarfing natural volcanic contributions, more than enough to overwhelm any diminishing returns effect. This is reflected in temp rise seen in just the last few decades, the rate of rise is increasing. This is why globally there is no real disputing of the science from any science body, it’s also why deniers are left only with quotes from their own blogs, because even groups like fox and the oil industry are deserting them.
- JimZLv 76 months ago
Assuming we added a degree in the last 150 years which seems conservative to me, I think we are probably good until 2200 and if you consider the diminishing affect from increased CO2 it is probably forever. In other words, we probably won't ever reach it. It is a scare tactic, not a serious threat.
- $@!ar W!ndLv 66 months ago
Zharkova, whose Grand Solar Minimum predictions are coming true, predicted the next Solar Grand Maximum cycle will begin around the end of this century. Therefore, maybe in 80 years. I don't know about you, but I will be in the "boneyard".
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- Word to the WiseLv 56 months ago
The average global surface temperature has risen 0.15°C-0.20°C per decade since 1975. Assuming this rate stays constant and doesn't accelerate, the temperature will rise 2°C around 2100. Whether or not this is "catastrophic" depends on who you ask.
- Anonymous6 months ago
The only way to remove these bot tagged questions is to report them for deletion.
- Anonymous6 months ago
The IPCC is a political organization that was created to advance an agenda: finding a human impact on climate in order to justify giving the UN the power to imposes taxes on businesses.
How the IPCC views their science:
“…one has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. Instead, climate change policy is about how we redistribute de facto the world’s wealth…”
~ IPCC official Ottmar Edenhofer
“On the one hand, as scientists we are ethically bound to the scientific method, on the other hand, we are not just scientists, but human beings as well. And like most people, we’d like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climatic change. To do that, we need to get some broad-based support, to capture the public’s imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of the doubts we might have. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest.”
~ IPCC lead author Stephen Schneider
- Bubba GubbinsLv 76 months ago
Around Wednesday or Thursday.
- MikeLv 76 months ago
10,000 years .....................
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