If the election was held today, I would vote to re-elect the President. He has made a few mistakes and not kept all of his campaign promises, however, at this point in G.W. Bush's Administration, I recall wanting him gone already. Bush's win tainted the whole term from the start. It was eventually decided by the GOP majority led Supreme Court (no surprise), and soured a lot of folks from the start. 911 could not have come at a better time for him, even if his response was ineffective. He galvanized the nation against a terrorist enemy and gave convincing speeches for going into Afghanistan to hunt down Bin Ladin. No one at the time realized this diversion was a jumping off point for a family vendetta.
Remember George H.W. Bush's retreat from the Persian Gulf War and attempts to beat Saddam Hussein after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait. (Historical facts). Anyway, the war effort was diverted into Iraq on mistaken intelligence of W.M.D.s there, well we all know that is still believed to have been a waste of valuable time and countless lives. Haliburton shareholders may have been pleased, but that hardly seems worth a single innocent life.
Back to the question: Donald Trump flaunts his wealth (everything he owns is covered in gold).
The majority of voters now, are not wealthy or overly impressed by a braggart and a celebrity on a marginally popular TV show. He won't be able to say "You're Fired!" to Congressmen/women or anyone in the private sector, if elected. He has no cred as an elected official, just as a CEO. CEOs and their huge salaries, as of late, are unpopular to the Middle and Lower Class of voters, who are cutting corners to pay for gasoline and higher energy prices and all the other items that are affected by these necessary commodities. The 'Donald' doesn't strike me as an advocate for 'Green' initiatives that have already created thousands of jobs. Obama, on the other hand, does desire progressive and ecology friendly avenues to get away from foreign oil imports and curb Climate Change (which is VERY real, per the majority of climate specialists and actual consequences, now occurring)- plus continued and increasing jobs creation, which is also happening. Obama has experience as our fearless Leader, and is doing a decent job, despite Fox News constant criticism.
Even Rush Limbaugh has been saying, President Obama has no capable Republican adversaries, to effectively challenge him for 2012. He's not happy about it, but he admits it.
I suppose, since Obama is officially running for re-election and Donald Trump has not announced that he is, in fact, running- this question is just a gauge, in case Mr. Trump is the only serious candidate.
Hands down, Barrack Obama will and would win, against any of the possible GOP "maybe running",
'less than presidential' hopefuls.
It is not even close in any unbiased poll (there are so few, really, unbiased political polls).
I research each poll I see splattered across the internet. Few are unbiased, and most seem to be pro-conservative. Interesting how more polls get conducted by the perceived underdogs of the two party political system. Must be more ready cash to spread around to polling personnel and website owners, from the very wealthy GOP friendly and decidedly nervous. The GOP has been making few friends lately, and that trend seems unalterable, with the Tea Party steering the 'Titanic' lately.
Symbolic budget cutting measures seem unnecessarily cruel to the underprivileged and elderly, the working class and unemployed/poor. Not too smart, given that we only have 19 months or so, until 2012 elections. Voters have long memories when they must cut more budgetary corners, thanks to highly publicized Republican moves that purposely targeted them and only aided rich people and oil companies/big business. I expect a lot of losers on the Conservative side, come 2012.
Everything draws on well known, history or recent events. One only has to Google (or web search with one's own favorite search engine), to verify much of my argument. One must cross-reference a multitude of news sources, to get a proper feel for the truths expressed. Some are opinions, of course, predicting the future is an inexact science, at best. If one prefers the GOP over Democratic government, one will dispute EVERYTHING I just wrote. Conversely, a Liberal or Democratic voter will agree, for the most part, with my assessment. The nature of the question invites speculation, so there are no guarantees. Isn't Free Speech a wonderful thing?