Poker - average sitngo downswings?

I've had some really odd results and just wanted to check with live players and net players that this is coshure. Last month, playing sitngo's and strictly only using 5% of my bankroll, my bankroll went from $200 to $3300, wasn't getting outdrawn hardly at all, running like a god, then in last 3 days dropped 11 buyins in succession, all highly unlikely beats. My AA and KK have been cracked 7 times in a row, loads of AJ vs A9 kind of beats (slightly more likely 33%), flush under flush and trips under trips. Literally havent won a showdown in 20 games. From one extreme to the other, is this normal? Of course it CAN happen but this always seems to happen, run ok for a bit then bang! 20 buyin downswing, cant win 1 showdown throughout this period. It just doesn't feel random at all. Is this just how poker works or are there some huge question marks over internet poker?

4 Answers

  • 1 decade ago
    Favourite answer

    11 losses in a row is not out of the norm, even if you're playing heads up. I've had literally 4 or 5 games at once where I had premium pocket pairs at the same exact time, got all my chips in on every table, and lost every single one of them. A bad run does not necessarily mean you're playing bad, but then again, your good run does not mean your were playing that well either.

    My only suggestions are to continue to try and improve your game, and exercise strict bankroll management. Don't be afraid to drop down to lower buy in games if your bankroll gets too low.

    And no, there are not any "huge question marks to online poker." People that claim there are have literally no proof at all except their isolated examples that they say "happen all the time." Search all you want, but I guarantee you that you will never find a person who has proven that online poker strays from the statistical norm in the long run. And there are plenty of people who have played millions of hands and have statistics on all of them, so it's not like nobody has ever had the chance.

    Source(s): I'm a Supernova on Pokerstars.
  • 1 decade ago

    They do happen, that's the entire reason you practice strict bankroll management. When you were running like a god how many races did you win in a row? How many times when you were a 60% favorite did you win the hand? I've been trying to turn nothing into 10 grand like Ferguson did, and I primarily play sng's. I'm up to about $150 on PS. And in that time I've seen some pretty gnarly swings. I once finished first 12 times in a row. And I once busted out of four games in a row where each time I had flopped top set. I had a straight flush beaten by a higher SF on the river. I flopped quad kings and had a guy hit quad aces on the turn. But over the last year, if I graph my bankroll over the entire year, I can draw a pretty solid regression line whose slope is equal to my expected ROI. There have been some definite swings, but over a long enough time frame the lucky streaks and the unlucky streaks cancel each other out. What's funny is that a friend of mine who plays only spread limit hold'em in casinos keeps a journal, and our ROI and variance is almost exactly the same! We'll never admit it to each other, but we both know we're evenly matched. So I think it's just poker.

  • 1 decade ago

    I've had the same results.

    Playing nothing but $10+1 Sit-N-Gos (multi and single-table) I turned $50 into more than $600 in less than two weeks.

    Alot of this was in fact due to crazy-luck as hands like AQ took out low-mid pocket pairs, draws hitting, etc.

    Then in a matter of weeks it all crumbled apart and I found myself losing all those $600+ as well as $800 I'd made playing in Atlantic City.

    High pocket pairs were getting cracked, runner-runner straights, flushes, full-houses were being made.

    One excuse the companies make is that since internet poker happens so much faster and you see so many more hands/cards you're more likely to see hands get busted.

    I take this with a grain of salt.

    Also, low-stakes internet poker is full of suckers; and when you're surrounded by suckers, you're going to get sucked out on. ALOT.

  • 1 decade ago

    Many players think there are some strange swings in online poker also. There is speculation about a Poker Action Flop used by online poker sites to spread the winnings around more. Maybe this is what you are running into.

    Here is a link to the article:

    Check it out and see it it sounds like what is happening to you.

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