I can't see how you expect respectful answers here, being that you just called me a racist for supporting Senator Obama. To answer your question, I think that Obama still has a good chance of beating McCain if 1. The Democrats can stop whaling on each other and settle on a candidate as soon as the primaries end, and 2. They can successfully paint McCain as an insincere "maverick" who is all too willing to continue the short-sighted and destructive economic and foreign policies of the Bush administration. If they can't do both these things, and fairly soon, it looks good for McCain. Do keep in mind, however, that should Iraq land the economy look no better in five or six months, McCain's job becomes that much tougher.
Ron Paul has no chance. If he chooses to remain on the national ballot, especially as the Libertarian candidate, he hurts McCain.