There have been a number of different opinions and predictions from industry officials in relation to the UK’s economy of late. Most have been relatively gloomy and some have been downright worrying, with many officials expressing concern over how close the nation is of sliding into recession. According to a recent report the UK’s largest employer’s association, the CBI, has stated that the state of the economy is actually worse than most thought.
Officials from the CBI have said that the state of the economy in the UK is deteriorating at a rate that is faster than previously thought. The CBI director general Richard Lambert sent a stark warning in a letter to members, which stated that there was “no doubt that the mood has darkened in the last two or three months.”
He also said that both the CBI and other industry officials had previously been far too optimistic about the forecast for the UK economy.
Growing fears over possible recession in the months to come have been heightened as a result of slow growth and soaring inflation levels. Lambert said that the high rate of inflation, which has hit record highs of 4.4% for July, had taken people by surprise. He also described the global credit crunch, which has been wreaking havoc in the nation’s financial markets since last year, had been bigger and broader than most people had initially anticipated.
Lambert said: “A year ago it seemed reasonable to hope that the worst would be over by now. That has not turned out to be the case.”
Over recent weeks growth forecasts have been cut, economic activity has been slowing, house prices have been falling, business and consumer confidence has fallen, and consumer spending has been affected by tight credit conditions. The CBI has cut its growth forecasts for 2009 from 1% to 0.4%.
Mr Lambert stated: “This is why most analysts are now suggesting that the economy will at best only manage to stagnate in the coming few quarters, and that the growth prospects through 2009 and into 2010 look no better than anaemic.”
He also went on to state: “The CBI, along with most other forecasters, has been consistently over-optimistic about the economic outlook over the last 12 months.”
He added: “A sharp economic slowdown is a new experience for many people in government and in business.”
He did add that despite the doom and gloom of the situation there were still many businesses that were doing well despite economic conditions, but he said that the future did not look all that bright for many others.
In the meantime many industry groups such as the British Chambers of Commerce are continuing to urge the Bank of England to cut interest rates in order to restore consumer confidence and boost the flagging economy. However, with inflation at such high levels the Bank of England faces a very difficult time in terms of setting the base rate as a result of stagflation.